Winning versus losing in tough times

Winners get more distribution, experience more loyalty and offer smaller pack sizes

Winning comes with more reach – which requires availability

Over the past few weeks we examined how share winners from 2019 to 2023 differed from share losers. Not surprisingly, winning (losing) share is closely linked with more (less) penetration.

But how do you get more buyers? One pathway is better distribution: the top winning brands managed to get listed in more retailers, with getting on shelf in almost one additional Top 10 retailer on average. The top losing brands experienced a decline of availability.

Winning comes with higher loyalty

The average brand can expect to secure about half of the category spend of its buyers. Note that this percentage is higher (lower) for infrequently (frequently) purchased categories. Obviously, it attains none of that spend amongst non-buyers.

For top winning brands, not only did the number of buyers increase, but also their loyalty: their buyers allocated 54% of their category budget to these brands in 2019 – which increased by more than 3% until 2023. Top losing brands experienced a decline in reach and loyalty.

Winners offer smaller packages

One common theme we found for winning brands since 2019 is more modest price increases. In a period of high inflation, they increased prices less than share-losing brands and less than Private Labels. One other factor to signal affordability are smaller packs: they may not be cheaper per gram or ml but they reduce the absolute cost for one unit bought. We find that winning brands over the past four years on average offer smaller pack sizes than losing brands (note that these averages hide a lot of variation across a large set of categories and brands – if you are interested in more detail regarding your category and brands please get in touch).