This week we build on the insights related to price thresholds – in what circumstances the different patterns occur and secondly at what price levels. Lastly we look at the latest FMCG global volume trends from the Europanel Barometer.

Drivers of different threshold patterns

Pattern Drivers

Sales lift: categories/brands that are expensive (allows more people to buy) or with high price volatility (waiting for deals).

Saturation: low frequency categories and where consumers don’t want or can’t store more.

Loyalty: large and differentiated brands.

Sales drop: high price volatility as consumers lie in wait for deals.

Source: Pauwels,Srinivasan, Franses (2007), “When do price thresholds matter in
retail categories?,” Marketing Science

Drivers of threshold price levels

Driver thresholds

Small drop: high share and expensive brands – enables more people to buy.

Large drop: high price volatile categories/brands – consumers wait for best deals.

Small rise: high price volatile categories and brands - consumers know deals will come.

Large rise: high share & expensive brands – consumers are loyal.

Source: Pauwels, Srinivasan, Franses, “When do price thresholds matter in retail categories?” - Marketing Science

FMCG volume in Q2 2021 is well below 2020 but still 3% higher than 2019 – and 9% higher in Western Europe


The grocery market is, as expected, below the lockdown peaks of 2020.

But globally and for Western Europe this still represents a significant increase vs 2019.

Note that the global patterns of decline in Feb 2020 and increase in Feb 2021 are due to Chinese New Year which was very low in 2020 due to the earlier lockdown.

Source: Europanel Barometer Q1 report based on France, Germany, Italy, NL, Spain, UK, Poland, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, USA, China, India, Japan

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Who Cares? Who Does? 2020
BG20 | Brand Growth 2.0

What is BG20?

BG20 is a global project, looking at the drivers of long-term brand growth. If you would like to learn more about this topic please contact understand@europanel.com

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