Recent trends for the FMCG market in China

Posted by Filipa Silverio on Apr 09, 2020

This week we look at the recent trends for the FMCG market in China and answer a couple of questions on the last recession:

 

  1. In China, following the initial stock-up before lockdown, the subsequent weeks showed a significant drop back in annual growth rates. However, these first weeks after lockdown are a direct comparison with the customary Chinese New Year peak in 2019. Therefore I would not expect such a slowdown in other countries post lockdown – and this is substantiated by data so far from Belgium and Spain. But this will depend on the volume of stockpiling in advance.
  2. There have been several questions about the impact of times of uncertainty on trade channels. Here I look at Discounters over the last recession and there doesn’t appear to be any specific stimulation to share growth. Naturally there are circumstances where trade channels change significantly – such as hyper-inflation as seen in some countries in Latin America, leading to the growth of local stores. And I would expect trade channel repercussions during and after the current crisis dependent on lockdown rules and ability to meet demand.
  3. Another question this week was about the innovativeness of brands over the last recession. This confirms other studies that the winners were much more active.