Posted by Filipa Silverio on Apr 09, 2020
This week we look at the recent trends for the FMCG market in China and answer a couple of questions on the last recession:
- In China, following the initial stock-up before lockdown, the subsequent weeks showed a significant drop back in annual growth rates. However, these first weeks after lockdown are a direct comparison with the customary Chinese New Year peak in 2019. Therefore I would not expect such a slowdown in other countries post lockdown – and this is substantiated by data so far from Belgium and Spain. But this will depend on the volume of stockpiling in advance.
- There have been several questions about the impact of times of uncertainty on trade channels. Here I look at Discounters over the last recession and there doesn’t appear to be any specific stimulation to share growth. Naturally there are circumstances where trade channels change significantly – such as hyper-inflation as seen in some countries in Latin America, leading to the growth of local stores. And I would expect trade channel repercussions during and after the current crisis dependent on lockdown rules and ability to meet demand.
- Another question this week was about the innovativeness of brands over the last recession. This confirms other studies that the winners were much more active.