Share gain and share loss

Posted by Filipa Silverio on May 26, 2020

This week we bring together the recent insights into what happens to a brand after a share gain or a share loss.
Inertia – does the brand remain higher or lower and Momentum – does it continue to grow or lose.

 

These analyses are based on 5 separate analyses on thousands of brands in 8 countries over the period 2008 to 2018.
We also look at the latest FMCG trends across nearly 30 countries.

 

1. Some insights on the winners:

  • Half of the winners in a given year continue to grow in the following year;
  • 1 in 4 winners lose in the following year but less than they had won before;
  • Winners in a given year have nearly a 60% likelihood of still being above their original share 5,6,7, … years down the road;
  • 1 in ten winners manages to win another three years in a row.

2. Some insights on the losers:

  • More than half of losers in a given year also lose in the next year;
  • 1 in 4 losers in a given year win in the following year, but not enough to recover their losses;
  • Just 1 in 4 losers in a given year recover the following year;
  • Losers in a given year have a 70% likelihood of still being below their original share 3,4,5, … years down the road.

3. Based on detailed weekly datasets from GfK and Kantar, we look at how FMCG has developed this year across nearly 30 countries, pre-lockdown and into the most recent weeks.
On average, the market continues to benefit although this varies significantly by country from stability over the whole period up to nearly 30% growth.