How the past year compares to long-term trends with respect to FMCG value and volume
Value growth in most countries remains close to record years, apart from Japan, China and US
The best and worst years over the past 16 years in terms of value change are up to 20% apart – with the highest growth coming in 2020 (Covid-19 and a shift to in-home consumption) and both 2022 and 2023 (high inflation). The least growth (actually a decline) happened in 2021 (post Covid-19 drop).
While the latest year was a record year in many European and LatAm countries, the US, China and Japan saw much more modest growth (mostly because of lower inflation rates).
Volume growth has reached long term lows and currently ranks below its historic average in all European countries
The best and worst years differ a little less in terms of volume than value trends in most countries. While the biggest volume decline happened in 2021 (post Covid-19 drop), the growth rate in most countries in 2023 still lags behind long-term averages.
The only exceptions to this pattern are Brazil, Mexico and China – all of which also see an uptick in shopping frequency.
