Discounters are growing, but not only for the reasons you may expect. Value shares are up more than volume shares because prices in Discounters increase more than elsewhere (and they open more stores).
We do not see a link between Discounter growth in a category and that category’s price path.
Discounter shares are growing – much more in value than volume
Over many years Discounter value share growth has been faster than volume shares. After a period of stability over the pandemic, value shares, especially, are rising significantly again, well ahead of volume.
Discounter value shares are rising due to two main factors
Two-thirds of the current Discounter value share increase is due to higher than average price increases (19% vs 14% average) and the rest is due to additional store numbers. Naturally the importance of each driver varies by country from being only due to price to all coming from store numbers.
Discounter share increases are not related to price inflation by category
There is no correlation across categories between Discounter share change and the price increases in each category. Shoppers are not making category level decisions when at Discounters but are looking at the overall basket spend. But if brands are to compete, they need to be listed.