Latest FMCG trends and consumer momentum

This week we look at the most recent FMCG trends across over 20 countries and we develop our recent theme of consumer inertia into consumer momentum.

1. Our recent articles on consumer inertia showed that once a brand gains or loses share, this gain or loss is retained in the long term whether after recession or not. We now look at whether winning or losing brands continue to gain or lose share year after year. This is much less likely with about a 50% probability every year – only 1 in 20 of the original winners or losers after 5 years. Again, recession has no impact on this percentage.
2. Whereas the average share of brands that gain or lose share is very similar, brands that benefit or suffer from consumer momentum are quite different, perhaps as expected – those that benefit are much smaller than those that suffer.
3. Based on detailed weekly datasets from GfK and Kantar, we can now look at how FMCG has developed this year across more than 20 countries, pre-lockdown and into the most recent weeks. On average, the market continues to benefit although this varies significantly by country from stability over the whole period up to nearly 30% growth.
4. Pre and post-lockdown trends in Spain and Belgium continue to show significant overall growth.