Category development during the last recession
With a potential recession looming, this week we look at how categories developed volume and pricing over the last recession – and how difficult it was to get real price increases. We also update the latest FMCG trends around the world, this week looking at regions.
1. During the last recession, FMCG generally benefitted and so we saw a majority of categories growing in volume. But comparing the change in price paid to inflation showed that this often came at the expense of shoppers down-trading to cheaper products.
2. The relative position of countries varied – China and Spain were more likely to get volume and real price increases, Brazil and the UK volume increases, France and Russia more up-trading with the opposite for Mexico and Italy, Germany and the Netherlands with growth less likely.
3. The latest FMCG trends show the continued growth for the market in Europe with overall stability for the year so far in Latam and SE Asia. Factors will be the extent to which people were out of home before the crisis plus the relative socio-economic levels.