Discounters and inflation…

…Several questions recently have asked about my conclusion that inflation doesn’t seem to drive changes in store choice! Here I examine a number of metrics from 2007 to 2016 – again the conclusion is that there is no step change at times of high inflation.

Between 2007 and 2016 discounters gained share – not disproportionately in high inflation periods nor in volume share

Driven by growth in Italy, NL, UK and Poland, Discounters increased value share from 2007 (and earlier). Volume shares didn’t grow faster and higher inflation did not provide a noticeable extra impetus. Shoppers during these periods did not flock to discounters for rock-bottom prices

Discounters gained significant extra shoppers from 2007 to 2016 but inflationary periods did not show a particular boost

In line with their continuous share growth focused on Italy, NL, UK and Poland, the Discounter channel attracted more shoppers. Periods of high inflation did not drive these increases further

Shopper visits to discounters also became more frequent from 2007 to 2016 but the trends are consistent over time rather than higher during inflationary periods

Alongside increases in shopper numbers, those shoppers also bought more often in Discounters – but again there is no evidence that high inflationary periods led to greater gains