2022 Market growth forecast

Our first Pick of the Week this year looks at some of the issues raised in our recent New Year’s resolutions – market growth forecast for 2022; the latest FMCG online share trends; and an update on the Discounter channel.

1. In line with forecast the FMCG market in 2021 was 2% ahead of 2020 and 2022 is expected to be stable vs 2021 – both much higher than 2019
   FMCG globally in 2020 was 8% higher than pre-Covid expectation. Early in 2021, I forecast a further gain of 2% in 2021 and this seems to be the case with some countries still to report. I expect market stability this year – naturally if inflation increases significantly, this will drive more growth.
2. Up to November 2021 FMCG online shares still remained static and below covid driven peaks
   Online shares peaked early in 2021 but like in 2020 dropped back and remained stable subsequently. The first end of year data reports seem likely to maintain that stability.
3. Discounter shares in western Europe remain stable whilst growth continues in eastern Europe
   The online share boost and less shopping around have restricted Discounter share growth in W Europe. However, growth continues in E Europe with a lesser Covid FMCG market and basket size effect and an increased number of stores