How FMCG market remains strong compared with long term norms

Posted by Filipa Silverio on Dec 14, 2021

The FMCG market globally and especially in Western Europe remains strong compared with long term norms – and the return of more Covid restrictions will continue to underpin this strength, with more working from home.

The lockdown induced less frequent, large basket shopping occasions are still a feature of many markets.

 

  1. FMCG volume in Q3 2021 was below 2020 but still 2% higher than 2019 – and 4% higher in Western Europe
    The grocery market is, as expected, below the lockdown peaks of 2020. But globally and for W.Europe this still represents a significant increase vs 2019. Note that the global patterns of decline in Feb.20 and increase in Feb.21 are due to Chinese New Year which was very low in 2020 because of the earlier lockdown.
  2. Since the start of the pandemic shopping frequency dropped and basket size rose significantly – even up to Q3 2021 these behaviours remain the norm
    Pandemic advice and sometimes lockdown rules led to less shopping around, fewer store visits but very large basket sizes in a record FMCG market. Both behaviours still continue in Q3 2021.
  3. The FMCG outlook for the next few months looks healthy especially in Western Europe
    With more Covid restrictions recently, the amount of time spent at home is rising again. Yet at the same time confidence and unemployment are returning to pre-pandemic levels in many cases. And price rises in FMCG have yet to take effect. FMCG values were high in Q4 2020 (+10% W Europe) and we were expecting a decline in comparison – these factors should limit that drop.